Prediksi Martín Guzmán: Argentina loses extra dollars with gas imports from soy boom

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Image archive – El ministro de Economía argentino, Martín Guzmán. REUTERS/Agustin Marcarian

In the first 8 changing days of June, liquidated agro exports of more than USD 1,300 million in the mayor de cambios market. Of them, the Central Bank could be left with only USD 25 million. The dollars raised from the liquidation of the agro record cannot be retained by the BCRA, nor can it be with the rigorous scheme of the current exchange rate for individuals as well as for companies.

The dollars raised from the liquidation of the agro record cannot be retained by the BCRA

These currencies are used to pay for energy imports. At the end of the week, it was estimated at less than USD 500 million for this purpose. The BCRA number is a replica in 2022: with USD 900 million in el mercado de cambios and pesar de que the field liquidated USD 15,329 millionup to 15% by 2021.

Source: Curat, Martínez Larrea & Asociados (CML & A)
Source: Curat, Martínez Larrea & Asociados (CML & A)

Argentina is feeling the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the jump in the prices of raw materials, as well as in exports (grains) as well as in imports (gas). Last March 21, during a presentation at the Argentina Oil & Gas exhibition, Martín Guzman it was anticipated that both balance sheets would remain in balance: the negative impact of paying more for energy would be compensated by a better performance of grain exports. But the prediction of the Minister of Economy each time is more in doubt. The war is complicating the accumulation of reserves, which in addition is one of the compromises assumed with the IMF.

The war is complicating the accumulation of reserves, which in addition is one of the compromises assumed with the IMF

“For Argentina, this implies a multidimensional shock; from the point of view of the balance of payments, and today’s prices, we see that the effect is neutral. You can compensate for the impact that can cause shock commodity (as much in grains as in gold, in mining products in general) with the shock of energy, there will be the import needs for Argentina ”, Guzmán said in March. At the time, it was announced that “the situation changes all the time because there is a lot of volatility on all fronts; on the energy front and on the others commodity”.

Following the record price of soy, which this week crossed the USD 650 per ton in the Chicago market, its highest price in 10 years, the weight of not having energy self -sufficiency during times of equally declining prices, has more influence. And on the day of the exchange market, the BCRA now recommended accumulating currencies.

Source: Curat, Martínez Larrea & Asociados (CML & A)
Source: Curat, Martínez Larrea & Asociados (CML & A)

Para Claudio Caprarulodirector of Ecolatina, Guzmán’s protagonist “now happened” with reasons that “It has nothing to do with the production of sino with the consumption of de los argentinos”. The economist considers that “if we talk about energy versus food, the balance is favorable. But there are components that nothing can be done about it. “

More than how “we keep the import of energy, whose deficit increased in the first four months of the year to USD 1,100 million compared to last year”, and Ecolatina detected the usual behavior of Argentines facing the dollar. “We are in a period of high inflation with very low expectations, the uncertainty today is very big, and what can be done is to deal with access to the dollars in any way possible. If you do not have the weight, because there is time to change some electrodoméstico that is important, as you have more ability to now think about changing the car ”, explained the economist.

Obviously, there is something to be done. Ora se pueden perseguir dos gallinas al sendiri tiempo porque se escapan las dos. I have to look for a priority and I think it should be the accumulation of reserves (Timerman)

Pese al a profitable commercial balance and compromise with the FMI, so you can get a lot of problems. “You can make a big size, because the accumulation is very difficult, which is very important. With an 80% process in the last three years, you can create imports and subfacturación de exportaciones, and nothing you can do about it, but you can do this. the controls are not working”, He said Javier Timermansocial from AdCap.

There is a reserve for the “variable to look at” for the part of external investors and according to Timerman, it is an important accumulation: “Obviously, something has to be done. , and I think it should be the accumulation of reserves. For that real positive needs and, therefore, more credibility “.

Source: LCG
Source: LCG

In addition to these difficulties, this week there was a positive data on how to accumulate reserves. El FMI confirmed that no modifications can be made in the metas of the acuerdo year, so that they can be arranged in trimestrales. This is the result of life for el Gobierno that a compromise in the third quarter is impossible. It needed to raise USD 4,100 million and by June 6 it had reached less than USD 3,000, according to LCG data.

In conjunction with the formal announcement that Argentina has completed the measures of the first quarter, the Fund warns that it will “Adjusting the inter -quarterly metas of the primary fiscal deficit and the accumulation of reserves, maintaining without change the objectives of the Annual program”.

The IMF pointed out that the Argentine government has the commitment to “continue applying the monetary policy and exchange policy to achieve real positive political interest rates, ensure the competitiveness of the exchange type and pay a reservation of 000 USD. Iki wae”.

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